On the battlefield of American democracy, where every vote can tip the scales, the stakes are higher than ever. In some swing states, the margin between the winner and the loser can be as little as 20,000 votes. The tension has prompted Republican Party leaders and supporters to raise concerns about the possibility of illegal immigrants being naturalized as citizens just in time for the November 5 elections. They argue that this influx could draw voters toward Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, who could take advantage of the belief that newly minted voters generally lean Democratic.
The rate of naturalization of immigrants in the US in 2024 is the highest in 10 years. And some swing states are seeing high levels of new citizens.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his supporters are saying it could benefit Democrats in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The latest opinion poll conducted by Atlassian shows Trump ahead in two swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with a combined total of 33 electoral votes.
New York Times survey on battlefields revealed Trump was ahead by a slight margin in three swing states – Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
However, the narrow lead for Trump may have narrowed during actual voting in these swing states.
In this tough fight for swing states or battleground states, Republican supporters are claiming that Democrats are fast-tracking citizenship applications of ‘illegal immigrants’ and naturalizing them to influence votes in battleground states. Are.
Do swing states naturally get Americans’ votes?
Multiple reports are claiming that naturalization rates in some swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, have exceeded each state’s 2020 presidential vote margin.
“You look at the math there, and you can figure out that if people were engaged, they would have a decisive impact on the election,” Nicole Melaku, executive director of the National Partnership for New Americans (NPNA), told NPR. “You can take any part of the country, and you can see what role immigrants and naturalized voters will play in this year’s election,” Melaku said.
Generally, green-card holders or lawful permanent residents who have been in the US for at least three years or are married to a US citizen become naturalized citizens.
Trump and some of his biggest supporters like Elon Musk are claiming that Democrats are naturalizing “asylum seekers” to gain votes. Musk claimed that this could be the last election in American history If the Democrats win.
Musk said, “The Biden/Harris administration is sending “asylum seekers” straight to states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Arizona. It’s a surefire way to win every election.” CEO of Tesla Motors and owner of X.
Many of these naturalized citizens live in the swing states of Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
“They won’t accept it. They’ll describe it as naturalization which is the ultimate goal, and we want people to become Americans… but it’s always a political strategy to get more citizens with the assumption that they’ll vote for you.” Will give,” Lora Reese, director of the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Border Security and Immigration, told Fox News.
Four crore immigrants became citizens, the highest rate till date
According to government data, nearly 4 million immigrants have gained citizenship in the US since 2020.
The current pace of naturalization is not seen since 2013 and 2014, The New York Times reports. It said that about 33 lakh immigrants have become citizens during Biden’s tenure.
In some swing states, these naturalized citizens could make a difference.
“In Arizona, we keep talking about how the margin of victory is 10,000 votes,” said Nicole Melaku of NPNA, pointing to Joe Biden’s 10,457-vote victory in Arizona in 2020.
“Vote share is increasing and if people ensure that [naturalised] “If people participate in this year’s elections, they can bring about significant change,” Melaku said.
Natural voters can influence swing states
Another poll released by the National Partnership for New Americans highlighted how 76% of naturalized citizens in swing states and Democrat-leaning California said they would vote.
“More than 40% of natural voters in Nevada, Arizona and Georgia call themselves Democrats, as well as more than a third of voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida call themselves Democrats,” NPR reports.
Some naturalized citizens are Democratic-leaning, the Los Angeles Times reports.
Now, the US is processing citizenship applications at a much faster pace.
According to US Citizenship and Immigration Services data as of July 31, the average time to process a citizenship certificate has dropped from 11.5 months in 2021 to 4.9 months in 2024.
This was reportedly done to speed up the process after many applications were submitted following the pandemic.
However, this influx of immigrants at higher rates could reshape voting dynamics.
“Increasing naturalization efficiency is not just about clearing the backlog; “It’s reshaping the electorate just months before a potentially decisive election,” Xiao Wang, chief executive of Boundless, a company that analyzes immigration trends, told the NYT.
“Every citizenship application can be a vote that decides Senate seats or even the presidency,” Wang said.
‘Immigrant voting scares racists,’ Democrats say.
While the naturalization process could reshape voter dynamics and benefit Democrats, Republicans are also trying to stoke this illegal immigration fear among voters.
Russian chess legend Garry Kasparov, who lives in New York, said Elon Musk was trying to “scare racists”.
“Instead of worrying about the 50% of eligible voters in America who don’t vote, or Trump, who literally tried to overturn the last election with violence, he’d rather scare racists into voting for immigrants someday. Trying to do that is normal and good and has been an American strength for centuries,” Kasparov said.
Reports state that naturally different groups among the electorate vote for different parties and that Americans are not a homogenous category. So, even if the US naturalizes at a decade-high rate, with a large share of those new voters leaning toward the Democrats, there is no guarantee that the majority of those voters will vote for the Democrats. However, swing states are seeing a change in voting dynamics, and could decide the outcome.