After three weeks of fighting, Russia is still struggling to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region, a surprisingly slow and low-key response to the first occupation of its territory since World War II.
It all depends on Russian manpower and Russian priorities. With its army’s massive offensive inside Ukraine, the Kremlin simply does not have enough reserves to drive out Kiev’s forces right now.
President Vladimir Putin does not appear to consider the attack a serious enough threat to require withdrawing troops from the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, his primary target.
“Putin is focused on the collapse of the Ukrainian state, which he believes will automatically render any territorial control irrelevant,” wrote Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
A few months after launching a full-scale invasion in 2022, Mr Putin declared the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson illegally annexed as part of Russian territory, and their full annexation has been a top priority. He announced in June that Kiev must withdraw its troops from parts of the territories it controls as a condition for peace talks, a demand Ukraine has rejected.
Slow progress
Even as Ukrainian troops entered Kursk on August 6, Russian forces continued to advance slowly into the strategic city of Pokrovsk and other parts of the Donetsk region.
“Russia is not keen on continuing the attack on Pokrovsk and moving resources from Pokrovsk to Kursk,” said Nico Lang, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis.
Unlike Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian forces have built extensive fortifications, other parts of Donetsk that are still under Ukrainian control are less well-defended and could be more vulnerable to a Russian attack if Pokrovsk is captured.
Speaking about Kursk in televised meetings with officials, Mr Putin described the offensive as an attempt by Kiev to slow down the Russian drive in Donetsk, where he said Russian advances had only accelerated despite the events in Kursk.
Mr Putin has tried to downplay Kiev’s advance into Kursk, focusing on the capture of four Ukrainian regions.
Faced with the reality of the occupation of Russian territory, the state propaganda machine has sought to distract attention from the apparent military failure by focusing on government efforts to help the more than 130,000 residents displaced from their homes.
State-controlled media described the attack on Kursk as proof of Kiev’s aggressive intentions and that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was justified.
Ms. Stanovaya said that while many residents of Kursk may be angry with the Kremlin, overall nationwide sentiment may actually be in favor of the authorities.
“While this is certainly a blow to the Kremlin’s reputation, it is unlikely to lead to any significant increase in social or political discontent among the people,” he said. “The Ukrainian attack may indeed lead to a rally around the flag and a rise in anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western sentiments.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the advance in the Kursk region is aimed at creating a buffer zone to fend off Russian attacks. His chief military officer, General Oleksandr Sirsky, said Kiev’s forces controlled about 1,300 square kilometers and about 100 settlements in the region, a claim that could not be independently verified.
Observers say Russia does not have enough coordinated resources to pursue Ukrainian forces in Kursk.
Until the Kursk offensive, Mr Putin has avoided using troops in combat to avoid a public backlash. Young soldiers drafted for mandatory one-year duty have served away from the front, and troops deployed to guard the border in the Kursk region have become easy prey for Ukraine’s combat-trained mechanised infantry units.
Commentators have noted that Mr Putin is reluctant to call up more reserve troops because he fears domestic instability, as happened when he ordered the highly unpopular mobilisation of 300,000 in response to the Ukrainian counter-offensive in 2022.
Since then, the Kremlin has reinforced its forces in Ukraine through volunteers attracted at relatively high salaries, but this flow has slowed in recent months.
Thousands of troops would be needed to completely dislodge Ukrainian forces, which use the region’s dense forests as protection.
Apparently lacking the resources for such a large operation, Russia has for the time being focused on halting Ukrainian advances by sealing roads and targeting Kiev’s reserves – strategies which have been partially successful.
Logistics system disrupted
Meanwhile, Ukraine has confused Russian forces by destroying bridges over the Seim River, disrupting logistics for some Russian units in the area and creating conditions for control.
By seizing a large swath of Russian territory, Ukraine has embarrassed the Kremlin and reshaped the battlefield. But removing some of the country’s most capable forces from the east is a gamble for Kiev.
Attempts to gain a foothold in Kursk would stretch the more than 1,000-kilometer-long frontline, further increasing the challenges facing the outnumbered and under-armed Ukrainian military. Defending its position inside Russia would create serious logistical problems, as extended supply lines would become easy targets.
“The Russian system is very hierarchical and rigid, so it always takes them a long time to adapt to a new situation, but we have to see how Ukraine can hold its own once Russia adapts and comes forward with full force,” Mr Lange said.