This week we will look at India’s relations with our close neighbours to the East – the ASEAN countries, and particularly their visits this week.
The visit was part of several efforts by Modi to reach out to the region in his new term:
, Modi visits Brunei And SingaporeHe was scheduled to visit Thailand for the BIMSTEC summit, but it was cancelled due to the dismissal of the government there. He will travel to Laos for the ASEAN-India Summit and the East Asia Summit in October.
-New Delhi has hosted Vietnam Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in the last three months.
-President Murmu visits Timor Leste, New Zealand and Fiji
In Brunei, which was the first bilateral visit by an Indian Prime Minister, Modi and the Sultan of Brunei discussed a range of issues, including:
1. Strategic issues and enhancing defence cooperation. Currently they are not strategic partners but participate in military exercises and are working on a joint working group to institutionalise the relationship. More importantly, Modi targeted China over its disputes in the South China Sea with Brunei and other ASEAN partners.
2. A MoU renewing space cooperation including research and training, Brunei also hosted a telemetry tracking command centre for ISRO
3. Increasing energy supplies from Brunei, which have become increasingly scarce as India increases its consumption of Russian oil. They discussed long-term contracts for LNG
4. And trade – Despite India’s trade with other ASEAN countries doubling over the past decade, trade with Brunei has actually declined – from $500 million to about $200 million last year. In comparison, China-Brunei trade is about $3 billion.
Modi’s visit was a study in contrasts – as his next trip was to Singapore. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong was sworn in just a few months ago, while the Sultan of Brunei is the world’s longest-serving monarch – in power since 1967.
1. Singapore is India’s largest trading partner in the ASEAN group, with bilateral trade worth about $35 billion, which has seen a 2.5-fold increase since the signing of the CECA agreement in 2005. There are about 9,000 Indian companies registered in Singapore-
2. Singapore is also the largest source of FDI for India globally – a total of $160 billion since 2000, although this has fallen by a sharp 30% last year. More details are in my interview with Singapore’s Finance Minister Balakrishnan.
3. India and Singapore have the strongest strategic partnership among ASEAN countries, with the most military exchanges and exercises
4. The highlight of the visit was the signing of the Semiconductor Ecosystem Partnership, as well as MoUs on digital cooperation, health and skill development. Modi also visited the AEM factory in Singapore.
-Semiconductors are used in all electronic devices- crucial to India’s development as a high-tech manufacturing hub
– Singapore produces 10% of the world’s semiconductors, a $588 billion industry worldwide, and is a major player in IC design, packaging and wafer fabrication – an industry it has built over 6 decades
Due to land and labour issues and US-China rivalry, Singapore is looking to diversify its semiconductor manufacturing and invest in other countries, while India is also seeking semiconductor investments.
-The MoU states that both sides seek resilient semiconductor supply chains, a reference to mitigating risks posed by US-China rivalry in the sector, including protectionist moves by the US and predatory activities by China.
What are the challenges India faces in moving eastwards?
1. India has opted out of the ASEAN-led RCEP agreement in 2020, which has not only disappointed those countries but has also raised questions about India’s credibility in the negotiations.
2. India’s trade with ASEAN countries grew to $120 billion last year, but ASEAN’s largest trading partner remains China, with bilateral trade at around $722 billion and $440 billion with the US in 2022.
3. Maritime connectivity with ASEAN countries is historic, but terrestrial connectivity for India remains hampered by tensions in the Northeast and Myanmar, which links India to Southeast Asia through the proposed tri-nation highway.
4. India has diverged from ASEAN’s position on the issue of dialogue with the military regime in Myanmar following the coup and has invited its minister to the BIMSTEC Summit, while ASEAN has not done so.
5. Even though there are several US bases in the region, ASEAN countries have taken a more cautious stance on Chinese aggression against Taiwan and India’s participation in the Quad. If New Delhi is to stick to its motto of “ASEAN centrality” in the Indo-Pacific, it will have to carefully coordinate its strategic positioning.
6. There is growing concern in many ASEAN countries, including Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia and Malaysia, about communal tensions in India – these countries are also multicultural, multi-religious and have large Indian diaspora.
WV Take: India’s ties with ASEAN countries go back more than 10 centuries, involving matters of trade, culture, religion and people migrating there. India has re-invigorated its relationship with ASEAN several times, from Look East in the 1990s to Act East in 2015 – but unless it breaks the cycle of neglecting the region when other issues come to the fore, it will be difficult to sustain the obvious benefits of cooperation with them. Above all, India can draw lessons from ASEAN’s success for groupings such as SAARC and BIMSTEC.
WV Reading Recommendations:
1. The ASEAN Miracle: Has the West Lost It and Living the Asian Century by Kishore Mahbubani
2. East of India, South of China, by Amitav Acharya
3. The Merlion and the Ashoka: Singapore-India Strategic Relations, edited by Anit Mukherjee
4. Thirty Years of ASEAN-India Relations: Towards the Indo-Pacific edited by Prabir De
5. Does ASEAN Matter?: A Look from Inside, Author – Marty Natalegawa (Indonesian diplomat and former foreign minister)
6. Chip War by Chris Miller
7. When the Chips Are Down by Pranay Kotthane and Abhirami Manchi
Published – September 06, 2024 07:57 PM IST