Venezuela’s defeated opposition is running out of options to mount a challenge. President Nicolas Maduro claims re-election,
Opposition presidential candidate Edmundo González Urrutia fled into exile in Spain over the weekend. The popular leader he contested, Maria Corina Machado, has gone into hiding. Other opposition leaders have been arrested and Mr Maduro remains firmly in control of the oil-rich nation – showing no signs of relenting.
Mr Maduro’s disputed victory in the July 28 election is being challenged not only by the opposition or historical geopolitical rivals such as the United States, but also by Venezuela’s leftist allies such as Brazil and Colombia.
They have come up empty-handed in their efforts to help find a peaceful solution to the crisis.
Inside the country, there is plenty of talk about what the opposition calls a stolen election – but people are uttering their criticism in whispers: no one wants to be among the more than 2,400 people who have been arrested since the vote, including children, some even accused of “terrorism.”
Mr Maduro will be sworn in for a third term on January 10, and anything can happen over the next four months.
But at the moment, Venezuela looks like this: Mr. Maduro and other successors to the late iconic socialist leader Hugo Chaves are uniting, the opposition is trying to somehow reorganize itself and the outside world is assessing how to confront Maduro, whom international sanctions and pressure have long failed to shake.
carry everything away
The National Electoral Council loyal to Mr Maduro declared him the winner of the election with 52 percent of the vote. That means the former bus driver chosen by Mr Chavez as his successor will get another six-year term in power.
The opposition published copies of voting records from polling stations, saying the figures proved Mr Maduro’s claim of victory was false and that Gonzalez Urrutia had won by a landslide.
This act of publishing the results online has led the government to launch an investigation and allege that the opposition conspired, usurped office and committed sabotage.
Meanwhile the government has not released detailed voting records to support its claim of victory – saying it cannot do so because the election counting system was hacked.
Mr Maduro says he has won and, at least publicly, has ruled out any negotiations with the opposition.
“It’s clear that the government is not willing to bow down, but on the contrary, it is intent on strengthening its position,” said Antulio Rosales, a political scientist and professor at Canada’s York University.
“It’s a strategy to dominate, to wipe out everything,” said Giulio Cellini, head of the LOG political consultancy.
He said the goal is to “keep Maduro in office, no matter what the cost, because the cost of leaving power is even higher.”
After Venezuela’s last election in 2018, Mr Maduro also claimed victory amid widespread allegations of fraud. With the support of the military and other institutions, he managed to cling on to power despite international sanctions.
Mr Maduro has led the oil-rich but cash-strapped country since 2013.
His tenure saw GDP decline by 80% over a decade amid sanctions and domestic economic mismanagement, leading to the emigration of more than 7 million of the country’s 30 million citizens.
Gonzalez Urrutia, 75, a until now little-known former diplomat, said last week that he was not considering going into exile, as he has now done.
But for many Venezuelans, his escape was no surprise. He was under immense pressure, not only from a legal perspective – he had violated three summons to appear in court – but also because of the daily barrage of insults from Mr. Maduro, who called him “dirty”, a coward and even a Nazi.
Machado, a very popular opposition leader who was barred from running for president by Maduro-loyal courts, is now in hiding.
Now many Venezuelans are wondering if she, too, will go into exile.
Protests began shortly after Maduro’s victory was announced, and clashes with security forces left 27 people dead and about 200 injured.
Experts say it is unlikely that the United States will react as harshly as Donald Trump did after Maduro’s disputed victory in 2018. Then, the US administration said it no longer recognised Mr Maduro as president and instead recognised opposition leader Juan Guaidó.
The most recent U.S. penalties came earlier this month, when it seized a plane belonging to Mr. Maduro in the Dominican Republic. The United States is now expected to impose sanctions on individual members of Maduro’s government.
In the short and medium term, the Maduro government hopes to rule in isolation, said Pablo Quintero of the LOG consultancy.
“They have trained for these types of circumstances and they are willing to endure them to remain in power,” he said.
Published – September 10, 2024 11:45 am IST