If Ruben Gallego is going to lead Democrats to a fourth consecutive US Senate victory in Arizona, he will likely need the support of an unlikely group: donald trump Voter.
Gallego and his GOP opponent, former television news anchor Kari Lake, are both targeting undecided Republicans in a contest that will test the strength of Trump’s coattails. In an era when partisan loyalties rule, ticket-splitting voters are becoming rare, but they could be central in determining which party controls the Senate.
For Gallego, that means winning over voters like Winfield Morris, a 62-year-old Republican farmer and rancher who plans to vote for Trump for president but can’t get behind his loyal ally in the Senate race.
“I don’t like Kari Lake and I’m not going to vote for her,” said Morris, who lives in southern Arizona and owns businesses across the state. “I don’t think he has what it takes.”
Morris endorsed former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley over Trump and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb over Lake in the GOP primaries. He said he was angry to see Lake attack the late Arizona Republican Senator John McCain in his unsuccessful 2022 campaign for governor. Trump has also attacked McCain, but Morris said he does not see the Democrat kamala harris as a viable option.
Morris said he liked that Gallego was a Marine and might vote for him but he wanted to know more about him. He is also considering writing in Republicans he respects, such as Lamb, who received 40% of the vote in the Senate primary despite heavy spending and being overwhelmed by Lake.
Democrats have a tough road to keep the Senate
The Democrats’ difficult path to retaining control of the Senate depends on winning over Republicans in red states, so neither presidential candidate is making much effort to win them. But some of those races involve established incumbents who already have a running record.
An ad supporting Montana Senator Jon Tester – one of the most endangered Democrats in the Senate, who has refused to endorse Harris – shows the Republican crossing party lines.
“John signed over 20 bills into law by President Trump,” a person in the ad says.
Trump is in good shape in Ohio, but the race between incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and Republican challenger Bernie Moreno could be more competitive.
It is difficult for less established candidates to try to win over ticket sharers, but some are trying. In North Dakota, longtime Democratic Senate candidate Katrina Christiansen released an ad this week, narrated by a cattleman, saying she is voting for Trump, but not for Republican Senator Kevin Cramer.
In swing-state North Carolina, where Republican Mark Robinson’s campaign for governor faces a struggle Following a CNN report linking him to disturbing posts on an online porn site, the Trump campaign is relying on ticket-splitting in the opposite direction, hoping that GOP voters who bailed on Robinson will turn to the former president in that state. Will stick together where they desperately need to win. ,
Meanwhile, in Arizona, Gallego is hoping to repeat the model that has led Democrats to rack up statewide victories since Trump’s first victory, including senators Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly and Governor Katie Hobbs , who defeated Lake in 2022.
He is getting a lot of help. According to AdImpact, which tracks campaign ad spending, Democrats have outpaced Republicans on advertising by a wide margin so far in the race. As of Thursday, Democrats had spent $60.7 million on the race, while Republicans had spent $16.4 million. Democrats have $35.7 million reserved between now and Election Day, while $11.7 million is reserved by GOP-affiliated groups.
Gallego’s strategy depends on Democrats keeping their supporters united, gaining a majority of independents and winning over a small but decisive share of Republicans by appealing to conservatives who dislike Trump.
“Especially in modern times, it is extraordinary for the ticket distribution to be so large. But I think that’s absolutely right,” said Mike Madrid, a California-based Republican strategist who has worked to defeat Trump. “They’re more glued to Trump because he’s the strongest contender, and losing the presidency is very different from losing a Senate seat.”
Republicans have had difficulty replicating Trump’s coalition
Madrid said celebrity candidates who are close to Trump but do not have strong ties to the GOP establishment are having difficulty replicating Trump’s coalition. Television doctor Mehmet Oz and football legend Herschel Walker both lost Senate races two years ago. As a well-known local news personality, Lake fits this mold.
The messages from both Lake and Gallego reflect the importance of undecided Republicans to the outcome of the race.
Both are running ads focused on border security, particularly in Lake’s case. Gallego gently rebuked the Biden-Harris administration in an ad running in heavy rotation, saying, “Arizonans know — at the border, there is no plan.” He was not seen with Harris when she visited the Arizona-Mexico border on Friday.
And Gallego and Lake are both showing support for Republicans. For Gallego, it’s a businessman who says in ads he’s a Republican and calls the congressman “a man of principles.” For Lake, it’s Trump himself, as she reminds her supporters that he is supporting her. She has been one of his staunchest allies, buying into his lies that the 2020 election was stolen from him due to widespread fraud.
Undercurrents of divided loyalties between traditionally Republican groups often come to the fore at campaign events. For example, the Arizona Police Association, which represents thousands of officers in the state, endorsed Gallego, citing his background as a Marine combat veteran. Just three days earlier, Trump had called the group’s president, Justin Harris, on stage to endorse the former president at a rally outside Phoenix.
Gallego hopes there’s more where that came from, and there’s some history to suggest that’s possible.
In 2020, Republican Senate candidate Martha McSally privately expressed displeasure that she was trailing with Trump voters, which turned out to be true. While Trump lost Arizona by 10,457 votes – .03 percentage points – McSally lost to Kelly by 78,806 votes, indicating that thousands of voters split their tickets.
Some observers say Gallego fits the profile of the kind of candidate who could retrace the path forged by Kelly, a tough-talking former astronaut.
“Ruben is a legitimate tough guy,” said Stacey Pearson, a Phoenix-based Democratic strategist who ran a successful 2016 campaign to oust Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio that relied on voters who supported Trump at the top of the ticket. Had done. “He’s an Iraq War vet. He’s a guy who has honestly pulled himself up by his bootstraps, and that resonates very well with this western state.