democratic vice president Kamala Harris Republican leadership Donald Trump 47% to 40% margin in winning race November 5 US Presidential ElectionShe appears to be eroding Trump’s lead on the economy and jobs, a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Tuesday found.
Harris had a six percentage point lead, with 46.61% of registered voters supporting her, while Trump had 40.48%, according to the three-day survey that ended on Monday. The Democrat’s lead was slightly higher than her five-point advantage over Trump in the Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted on September 11-12.
The margin of error in the latest survey was about four percentage points.
While national surveys, including the Reuters/Ipsos poll, provide important indications about voters’ views, state-by-state results of the Electoral College determine the winner, with seven battleground states likely to be decisive.
Polls have shown Harris and Trump neck-and-neck in these battleground states, with many results within the surveys’ margin of error. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed Trump leading by a slim margin in three of these states — Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
When asked which candidate has a better outlook on “the economy, unemployment and jobs,” about 43% of voters responding in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll chose Trump and 41% chose Harris. Trump’s two-point lead on this topic is comparable to his three-point lead in the August Reuters/Ipsos poll and the 11-point lead Harris had in late July, just after she launched her campaign.
Harris entered the race after President Joe Biden withdrew his reelection bid following a poor performance in a debate against Trump in June. Trump was widely viewed as the front-runner at the time, partly based on his perceived strength in the economy after several years of high inflation under the Biden administration.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll between April and June also found that voters preferred Trump to Biden by a margin of five to eight points on the economy, unemployment and jobs.
Trump still holds a wide lead in some measures of confidence in his economic leadership. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in August asked voters which candidate had a better outlook on the “U.S. economy” — without making specific reference to jobs or unemployment — and Trump was ahead of Harris by 11 points, 45% to 36%.
Both candidates are focusing campaign promises on the economy, which the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll showed was the No. 1 issue for voters. Trump said on Tuesday he would create special manufacturing zones on federal land. He has also promised to raise tariffs on imported goods.
Harris has promised tax breaks for families with children and higher taxes for corporations. She is expected to unveil new economic proposals this week, though some advisers believe time is running out to convince voters on the policies.
A polling average maintained by FiveThirtyEight.com shows a tight race nationally, with Harris leading Trump 48.3% to 45.8%.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 1,029 U.S. adults online, including 871 registered voters. Of these, 785 were considered most likely to vote on election day. Among these likely voters, Harris led 50% to 44%, though similar to her lead among all registered voters, her advantage was only five points when unrounded figures were used.