Ukraine has accomplished a great feat Consecutive wins for more than a week It has remained the biggest threat since it blindly defeated Russia with a swift cross-border offensive, but the risk is growing as its troops plan to seize territory and Russia consolidates its position.
Ukraine last week sent thousands of troops to Russia’s western region of Kursk and took down Russian flags in towns captured by its troops, seizing the war initiative from Moscow for the first time in months.
On Wednesday, officials in Kiev said Ukraine would use Russian territory as a “buffer zone” to protect its north from Russian attacks. Ukrainian armed forces chief Oleksandr Sirsky said on Thursday that Kiev had set up a military commandant’s office in the occupied part of Kursk, signaling ambitions to dig in there.
Sirski said the occupied area spans more than 1,150 square kilometres.
Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk said in an interview that Ukraine’s goal in Kursk is to distract Russian forces from the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbass, where Russia has been advancing steadily for months and which it wants to fully occupy.
However, at the moment there is no sign of this happening.
Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka said that besides dealing a blow to President Vladimir Putin’s prestige, the biggest invasion of Russia since World War II has devastated the Russian army, captured soldiers who could be traded, and left wounds for Russia.
The Russian Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry referred questions to the armed forces, which did not immediately respond.
Russian officials have said the Ukrainian attack on Russian territory was a “terrorist aggression” and that civilian infrastructure was targeted, which Ukraine denies.
Putin said Russia would give an “appropriate response” to the attack, but the immediate task was to expel all Ukrainian troops from Russian territory.
Ukraine, which has not said how long it would hold the Russian land, said this week a foreign ministry spokesman said it was “not interested” in permanently occupying Russian land. Putin has said Ukraine wants the region as a bargaining chip in eventual peace talks.
Kyiv-based military analyst Serhiy Zgurets predicted that Ukraine would attempt to retain control of the towns of Rylsk, Korenovye and Sudzha and the land between them along the border, giving it control of a roughly 20-kilometer-wide strip of Russian territory.
He said the area could be defended by a small force using long-range artillery systems and air defences.
“Defending this line is not difficult, as there are few roads and a large number of rivers,” Zgurets said, adding that the area could be easily supplied from across the border in the Ukrainian region of Sumy.
He said he did not expect troops to move toward the Russian regional capital, Kursk, because that could expose them to cross-border attacks.
Mujica was more cautious, warning that trying to seize a large swath of Russian territory could cost the Ukrainian military heavy losses, pointing to the manpower problem that has plagued Ukraine for months in a war with a much bigger enemy.
Mujica said the counter-offensive was a “big gamble” that was proving profitable in the short term.
“But there may soon come a time when the losses from an attack in the Kursk region will outweigh the benefits, especially given the steady pace of Russian advances in the Donetsk region,” he added.
Russia’s response
After a bruising response in the early days of Ukraine’s invasion, which included convoys carrying troops across the border, including tanks and armored vehicles supplied by Western countries, Russia has finally slowed its advance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said troops had advanced a few kilometers on Wednesday.
Ukrainian forces had been pushed out of a village in a region bordering Russia, a senior Russian commander said on Thursday, but Kiev’s troops were still probing along the front.
Satellite images from Planet Lab and Maxar show several new trenches being built by Russia, not far from the border in the Kursk region.
Russia has so far relied on military units based near Kursk to push back Ukrainian forces, said Pasi Paroinen, an analyst at Finland’s Black Bird Group, which studies publicly available footage of the Russia-Ukraine war.
By bringing the war to Russia, Zelenskyy risks weakening Kiev’s defences on the Ukrainian front, while Russia has already sent thousands of reserve troops to shore up Ukrainian troops.
Paroinen said Moscow must have sufficient reserves so it can respond without withdrawing troops from the most active front lines of the war in the Donbass region.
Zagorodnyuk, the former defense minister, said Russia had been moving slowly there for several months, deploying large numbers of gliding bombs as well as assault groups that suffered heavy losses but made small steps forward.
Rather than a lull in fighting in the east, Ukraine on Thursday reported the heaviest fighting in weeks near Pokrovsk and said there was no sign of Russian military pressure easing on the eastern front inside its borders.
In a tacit approval of the growing pressure, Zelensky on Wednesday ordered his top commanders to send more weapons to Pokrovsk and Toretsk, another war-torn town that Russia is trying to capture.
Ukrainian soldier Dmytro, 36, who was stationed on the Ukrainian side of the Sudzha border during the incursion, said he wanted the war to end soon, and hoped the attack on Russia would put Ukraine on a more equal footing in any talks.
He said he viewed the incursion as a necessary step to prevent a Russian attack on Ukrainian territory across the border from the Kursk region, but he also felt uncomfortable invading foreign territory.
“To be honest, it doesn’t feel good to do what they (the Russians) did,” he said.
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