Renowned US election forecaster Allan Lichtman, known as the Nostradamus of US presidential elections, has made an initial prediction for the 2024 presidential election, which will be held on November 5. Lichtman, who has accurately predicted nine of the last 10 elections since 1984Currently, according to his “Keys to the White House” formula, Vice President Kamala Harris is being favored over Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.
However, the final prediction for the race is yet to be made.
Nostradamus was a famous 16th century French astrologer who is said to have predicted many important world events that occurred long after his death. On the other hand, Lichtman has been predicting US elections for the past 40 years. US presidential elections are held every four years.
Lichtman’s ’13 Keys to the White House’ Prediction Method
As a history professor at American University for 50 years, Lichtman developed the famous “13 Keys to the White House” methodology, which gives a clear indication of who will win the election.
This method consists of 13 true/false questions, and if six or more keys go against the ruling party, Lichtman predicts their defeat. If less than six keys go against them, they will win.
At the beginning of the presidential election cycle, Democrats were handed an automatic “key” to keeping President Biden in office.
However, the ballot has changed dramatically since then. President Joe Biden’s poor performance in the first presidential debate Held on June 27 in Atlanta, Georgia, he said Dropped out of presidential race and supported Kamala Harris for President. Kamala Harris is an Indian-American politician.
Democrats who nominated Kamala Harris have 6 out of 13 keys
As the New York Post reports, Democrats, including Harris as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, currently have six out of 13 critical issues in place, including primary competition, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandals, and no challenger’s charisma.
Republicans have three keys – winning the House majority in the 2022 midterm elections, the incumbent not running for re-election, and the incumbent’s lack of charisma.
If the Democrats lost three more crucial seats, they would be considered “losers” according to Lichtman’s formula.
Despite this, according to the New York Post, Lichtman believes “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.”
US presidential election predictor Nostradamus will give his final prediction for this cycle. Democrats choose their candidate at the Democratic National Convention (DNC)The DNC meeting is scheduled for August 19.
Lichtman has a very good track record, having correctly predicted Trump’s victory in 2016 and Biden’s victory in 2020. Since its development in 1981, his formula has been used to predict the outcome of presidential contests with a high success rate.