Simmering tensions in the Middle East are on the verge of escalating into a full-blown regional war, which many fear could begin with an Iran-led multi-pronged attack expected in mid-August.
As the global diplomatic community races against time to avert such a situation, many wonder how Israel – a small country – will protect itself from the combined wrath of Iran and its regional sub-state militias if the untoward event were to occur. In this article, India Today’s open-source intelligence (OSINT) team tries to paint a bigger picture of the power structure in the region.
Imminent attack
Israel and its biggest ally, the United States, are preparing for a massive offensive after a series of assassinations of Axis leaders, most prominently the killing of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr less than 10 days ago.
Tensions in the region have been high since Hamas’ deadly attack on Israel on October 7 last year, but escalated further after Israel launched an allegedly ambitious offensive in Tehran and Beirut following the killing of 12 young men in a rocket attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on July 27.
In April, Iran fired more than 330 drones and missiles towards Iran in response to an Israeli attack on its consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus, killing 13 people. Iranian state media has indicated that the upcoming attack will be similar to the one in April but much larger.
Possible attack scenario
As D-Day approaches, analysts have suggested three approaches Iran could take that would deliver a blow to Israel that would be severe enough to invite direct US intervention.
Scenario 1: More missiles and drones from different sides – The biggest challenge Iran faces is the difficulty of penetrating Israel’s strong missile defense system. Only a few of the more than 300 projectiles it sent in April fell on Israeli territory. The rest were intercepted and destroyed before reaching its airspace.
Analysts at the US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War believe Iran will not only launch missiles from its territory but will also call on regional proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq to launch simultaneous attacks to collapse Israeli and US air defences. Drones and missiles launched from Iraq, Lebanon and Syria will be much harder to intercept than those launched from Iran because of the shorter distance and flight time to Israel. This will give US and Israeli forces much less time to respond.
According to estimates, Hezbollah’s drones would take about 15 minutes to reach Haifa, and about 40 minutes to reach Tel Aviv via a direct route.
Scenario 2: Simultaneous attacks on US forces – Experts fear that Iran’s axis forces in Syria and Iraq could simultaneously attack US forces, especially in northern Syria. Recent reports in the Syrian media have spoken of Yemeni Houthis crossing into Syria from Iraq and deploying in different locations in eastern and southern Syria.
Such a strategy would divert American attention and resources from identifying and intercepting missiles headed toward Israel, increasing the likelihood that the missiles would penetrate Israeli air defenses.
Scenario 3: Multi-day attack – Iran and its allies could launch a series of drone and missile attacks over several days, allowing Iran and its allies to learn and adjust their attacks as they see how successful each attack is.
Iranian media have also discussed targeted killings of Israeli figures. On August 4, the Iranian armed forces-run Defa Press called on the resistance axis to target “prominent” Israeli leaders in retaliation for Haniyeh’s killing – which has been blamed on Israel.
Still, given the massive presence and strength of the US military in the Middle East region, it would be difficult for Iran and its allies to inflict any real damage on Israel.
According to The Intercept, the US has more than 60 bases, military outposts, or shared overseas facilities in the region — ranging from small combat outposts to huge air bases in countries like Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates.
In June last year, the US Department of Defense put the number of US troops in the Middle East at over 30,000. That number is believed to have grown since then, with the presence of a carrier strike group and an amphibious ready group – totalling over 12,000 sailors and Marines, as well as a number of other modern warships in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Gulf of Oman and the Mediterranean.
Earlier this week, the US ordered the deployment of an additional fighter squadron to the Middle East to bolster defensive air support capabilities in addition to a ballistic missile defense-capable cruiser and destroyer.
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