Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition lost its majority in the 465-seat lower house in a key parliamentary election on Sunday (Oct 27, 2024), a punishment for voter anger over the ruling party’s widespread financial scandals.
Mr. Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party remains the top party in Japan’s parliament, and a change in government is not expected. But the results create political uncertainty.
Falling short of a majority, Ishiba will find it difficult to pass his party’s policies through Parliament and may have to look for a third coalition partner. The LDP coalition has retained a majority in the less powerful upper house.
All told, according to Japanese media, the ruling coalition with junior partner Komeito won 215 seats, far below its previous majority of 279. This is the coalition’s worst result since it was briefly out of power in 2009.
Mr Ishiba took office on October 1 and ordered snap elections in hopes of boosting support after his predecessor Fumio Kishida failed to address public outrage over the LDP’s scandals.
“The consequences so far have been extremely serious, and we take them very seriously,” Mr. Ishiba told Japan’s national NHK television late Sunday. “I believe voters are asking us to reflect more and be a party that lives up to their expectations.”
Mr. Ishiba said the LDP would still lead a ruling coalition and tackle major policies, prepare a planned supplementary budget and pursue political reform.
He indicated that his party was ready to cooperate with opposition groups if it was in line with public expectations. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, led by centrist leader Yoshihiko Noda, won a huge lead of 148 seats compared to its previous tally of 98. “We have accomplished our goal.” Preventing the ruling coalition from gaining majority, which was a major achievement,” Mr Noda said.
Mr Noda described the election as a rare opportunity to change the government and said he wanted to lead a coalition with other opposition groups to do so. But his party had trouble finding partners, and many voters were skeptical of the opposition’s competence and inexperience.
For Mr. Ishiba, potential additional partners include the Democratic Party of the People, which seeks lower taxes, and the conservative Japan Innovation Party.
DPP chief Yuichiro Tamaki said he was ready for a “partial coalition”. Nobuyuki Baba, head of the Innovation Party, has denied any intention to cooperate. The centrist DPP quadrupled to 28 seats, while the conservative Innovation Party slipped to 38.
Mr Ishiba may also face a backlash from several scandal-tainted lawmakers aligned with former leader Shinzo Abe’s faction, whom Ishiba did not endorse for Sunday’s election in an effort to drum up public support.
The LDP is now less united and may enter an era of short-term prime ministers. Ishiba is expected to stay on at least until the ruling bloc approves major budget plans in late December.
“Public criticism against the slush fund scandal has intensified and will not go away easily,” said Izuru Makihara, a professor of politics and public policy at the University of Tokyo.
“There is a growing sense of fairness, and people are rejecting privileges for politicians.” Mr. Makihara suggested that Ishiba needed bold political reform measures to regain public confidence.
A total of 1,344 candidates, including a record 314 women, were in the fray in Sunday’s election.
In another blow to the ruling coalition, several LDP veterans who have held cabinet positions, as well as Komeito’s new leader, Keiichi Ishii, lost seats.
Experts say the CDPJ-led government is not in the picture due to lack of viable policies.
“If they take power and try to change the economic and diplomatic policies of the current government, they will collapse immediately,” Makihara said. Realistically, Ishiba’s ruling coalition would seek a partnership with the Innovation Party or the Democratic Party of the People, he said.
At a polling station in downtown Tokyo, many voters said they had considered the corruption scandal and economic measures in deciding how to vote.
Mr Ishiba, once a popular politician known for his criticism of his own party’s policies, has also received support for his inclusion in his week-old Cabinet.
Mr. Ishiba pledged to revive the rural economy, address Japan’s falling birth rate and strengthen defense. But his Cabinet contains familiar faces, including only two women, and were seen as isolated members of the faction led by late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Ishiba quickly backed away from earlier support for the dual surname option for married couples and the legalization of gay marriage, an apparent compromise to the party’s influential ultra-conservatives.
Rintaro Nishimura, a political analyst, said his popularity declined due to “the gap between what the public expected of him as prime minister and the reality of what he brought to the table as prime minister”. Asia Group,
published – October 28, 2024 10:51 am IST