Violence threatened to flare up across the Middle East on Sunday after Israeli officials said a rocket from Lebanon struck a soccer field in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teenagers. The military called it the deadliest attack on civilians since Oct. 7. It has raised fears of a wider regional war between Israel and Hezbollah, though in a rare move Hezbollah denied responsibility.
The White House National Security Council said it was talking with Israeli and Lebanese counterparts and working on a diplomatic solution to “once and for all” end all attacks in the border region between Israel and Lebanon.
The Israeli military said it attacked several targets inside Lebanon on Sunday night, though their intensity was similar to months of cross-border fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah. Hezbollah said it also carried out attacks. There were no immediate reports of casualties.
Saturday’s attack comes as Israel and Hamas are negotiating a ceasefire proposal to end the nearly 10-month-long war in Gaza.
Let us take a look at its wider implications:
What happened?
On Saturday, a rocket hit a soccer field in the Druze town of Majdal Shams, about 12 kilometers (7 miles) south of Lebanon and near the Syrian border, where dozens of children and teenagers were playing. According to the Israeli military, 12 people were killed and 20 others were wounded.
“I feel dark inside and out. Nothing like this has happened here,” said resident Anan Abu Saleh. “There is no way to explain it. I saw the children, I don’t want to say what I saw, but it’s horrible, really horrible. We need more security.” On Sunday, the coffins were carried through a crowd of thousands. In the evening residents displayed photographs of the young people in an intersection while holding lit candles.
The Israeli military said it was investigating why the rocket was not intercepted and questioned whether its short travel and reduced reaction time would have made that possible. Next to the blackened field, a few steps away, was a bomb shelter.
The Druze are a religious sect that began as a branch of Shia Islam and have communities in Israel, Syria and Lebanon. There are about 25,000 Druze in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, according to Yousri Hazran of the Hebrew University.
The Druze are considered among Israel’s most loyal citizens, although those living in the Golan Heights have a more tense relationship with the authorities. Israel captured the Golan, a strategic plateau, from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war and annexed it in 1981. Much of the international community regards the region as occupied territory. Although Druze leaders there claim allegiance to Syria, their relations with Israel are generally good.
“There is huge anger, huge. I have no feelings that I can explain to you,” said Hassan Shakir, a resident of Majdal Shams.
What could this mean for the wider war?
Attacks on the Israel-Lebanon border have fallen below the threshold of full-blown war since the start of the conflict in Gaza. But the number of casualties and the young victims in Saturday’s attack could force Israel to respond more harshly.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was considering options after returning home from the United States early on Sunday, warning that Hezbollah would pay a “heavy price for this attack that it has not yet paid.” The security cabinet authorized him and Defense Minister Yoav Galant to decide how and when to respond.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said “every indication” suggested the rocket came from Hezbollah. Israeli army chief of staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said an Iranian-made flak rocket with a 53-kilogram (117-pound) warhead belonging to Hezbollah was fired.
The day after the Hamas attack on October 7, Hezbollah began firing on Israel. Israel responded by targeting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure with airstrikes and drones. Most attacks have been confined to the border areas, although Israel has assassinated Hezbollah and Hamas leadership further north in Lebanon. Thousands of people along the border have been evacuated.
More than 500 people have been killed in Israeli air strikes in Lebanon since the beginning of October, including 90 civilians. On the Israeli side, 22 soldiers and 24 civilians have been killed.
Hezbollah has far superior firepower to Hamas. Barak Ben-Zur, a researcher at the International Counter-Terrorism Institute, told reporters that waging a war in Israel’s north while engaged in Gaza would put an additional strain on the army.
Some in Lebanon were bracing for more Israeli attacks. Lebanon’s national airline announced it would suspend seven flights scheduled to arrive in Beirut until Monday morning, without giving a reason. Acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati spoke urgently to diplomats and politicians, his office said.
“I doubt there will be an attack, but nothing is impossible when it comes to the enemy,” said Abdullah Dalal, a resident of the Lebanese border village of Chebaa. Israeli officials said the rocket was fired from nearby.
Any conflict could also involve the role of Iran, which has warned Israel that a strong response would have “unprecedented consequences.” Iran and Israel’s shadow war broke out in the open in April, when Iran fired 300 missiles and drones at Israel in response to the killing of an Iranian general, most of which were intercepted.
The UN Secretary General called on all parties to exercise maximum restraint.
What impact might this have on the Gaza war?
Officials from the United States, Egypt and Qatar were meeting with Israeli officials in Rome on Sunday in the latest effort to reach a ceasefire deal in Gaza. Netanyahu’s office said David Barnea, the head of Israel’s Mossad spy agency, had returned home and talks would continue in the coming days.
An Egyptian official said the attack on the Golan Heights could further accelerate the talks. “The two fronts are connected,” he said. “A ceasefire in Gaza will lead to a ceasefire with Hezbollah as well.” The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss sensitive talks with the media.
In a statement, Egypt’s Foreign Ministry called on all influential international players to “intervene immediately to protect the people of the region from further catastrophic consequences of the expansion of the conflict.”