In retaliation against Iran, Netanyahu opts for limited escalation

In retaliation against Iran, Netanyahu opts for limited escalation


A general view of Tehran after multiple explosions were heard in Tehran, Iran on October 26, 2024.

A general view of Tehran after multiple explosions were heard in Tehran, Iran on October 26, 2024. Photo Credit: Majid Asgharipur

“Iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay the price for it,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on October 1, hours after Iran launched a massive missile attack on Israel that killed at least two military personnel. Targeted the targets. The attack was the second direct Iranian attack on Israel this year, drawing a strong reaction from Israel’s political leadership. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said the Iranian attack was an opportunity for Israel to “destroy” the Iranian nuclear program. Others speculated that Israel might target Iran’s critical energy infrastructure or ports to extract heavy costs from the Islamic Republic.

But Prime Minister Netanyahu appears to have ignored calls for a massive retaliatory strike on Iran’s critical infrastructure and instead decided to launch strikes targeting Iranian military facilities on Saturday. According to Israeli media, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) carried out three waves of attacks inside Iran, hitting at least 20 targets in Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan and Shiraz.

According to IDF officials, in the first wave, Israeli warplanes targeted Iranian air defenses, and in the second and third waves, Iran’s ballistic missile and drone manufacturing and storage centers were targeted. The first explosion was heard at 2:15 am local time in Tehran and by 6 am the IDF announced that the attack was complete and all aircraft were returning home. Iran acknowledged “Israeli aggression”, but downplayed the impact of the attacks. State media reported that Iran’s air defense “successfully intercepted and countered Israel’s aggression.”

By carrying out a coordinated attack on military facilities in Iran, approximately 1,600 km from Israel, the IDF has demonstrated its long-range operational capabilities. This was also the first time that Israel claimed responsibility for an attack inside Iran. When Israel responded to Iran’s first direct attack, it targeted a radar system in Isfahan and did not even claim it. This time, Israel’s public statement that it is conducting an hour-long operation inside Iran suggests that the Iran-Israel conflict is entering a new phase. But at the same time, by limiting its attack to military facilities, Israel allowed Iran to claim that the attack was foiled and normal life was not affected.

The result of American pressure came to light

It is now clear that the US had pressured Israel against targeting Iran’s critical infrastructure. Any attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities or energy infrastructure would draw a strong response from Iran (IRGC-linked Telegram channels claimed that the Iranians had warned the Americans that they would attack across the Gulf if their oil facilities were attacked). Will target oil facilities in).

US President Joe Biden has publicly expressed his opposition to Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear sites and cast doubt on the effectiveness of attacks on oil facilities. US media reported earlier this month that Mr Netanyahu had told Mr Biden in a conversation that he would target Iranian military sites. The US agreed to send the THAAD anti-missile system with 100 troops to operate it to strengthen Israel’s defense. When the US confirmed the deployment of THAAD last week, it became clear that an Israeli attack was imminent.

The ball is now in Iran’s court. Iran had earlier warned that it would respond to any Israeli attack on its soil. But the initial response by Iran’s military and state media was aimed at downplaying the attack. For Mr. Netanyahu, the main purpose of the attack appeared to be to send a clear message to the rulers in Tehran that the State of Israel can reach anywhere in Iran. But at the same time, their decision to go for a limited strike, even after Iran launched about 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, shows signs of caution.

The absence of any major Israeli attack on its critical infrastructure allows Iran to claim that it successfully repelled the Israeli attack and withdrew from the regional war. But if it decides to retaliate, Israel could retaliate and West Asia would see a shooting match between its two major players.



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