Prime Minister Narendra Modi greets his Bangladeshi counterpart Sheikh Hasina in New Delhi on June 22, 2024. | Photo credit: AP
the story So Far:
One week later Protests turn violent in Bangladeshforcing the east Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will flee to IndiaThere is little clarity about her future. While the Narendra Modi government has granted her asylum, she has also tried to reach out to the government that replaced the Awami League government, even though she is counting on the cost of Bangladesh’s political changes to its relations with India.
Is Ms Hasina’s expulsion a setback for India?
Ms Hasina’s exit from power in Bangladesh is undoubtedly a dramatic setback for India, as the two countries have transformed their relationship on every front over the past decade and a half. The worry is that all the progress made in terms of economic front, border security, defence and strategic ties, trade and connectivity and people-to-people contact could be lost.
What was the reason for the downfall of Sheikh Hasina?
What kind of change came in the relations between the two neighbours during his reign?
Ever since her return to office (2009), Ms Hasina had made clear her intentions to forge stronger ties with Delhi. She launched a nationwide crackdown to shut down terror camps, campaigned against religious radicalism and extradited more than 20 “most wanted” people accused of terrorism and crime to India. Unlike her predecessor, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Prime Minister Khaleda Zia’s government, Ms Hasina also worked to end border tensions caused by illegal immigration into India, most notably the 2001 incident in which 15 people were killed in brutal clashes between the BDR-BSF. This was followed by several border patrol agreements and the signing of the historic Land Boundary Agreement in 2015.
In India, the Manmohan Singh government and then the Modi government gave Bangladesh trade concessions and low-interest loans to help Ms. Hasina turn what was once called a “basket case” of the global economy into a developing nation that outpaced its neighbours on human development indices. India and Bangladesh worked on boosting trade through connectivity, border ‘haats’, rail, road and river links. This year Ms. Hasina and Mr. Modi also forged a new defence cooperation. Though Ms. Hasina’s government became more and more authoritarian over the past decade, banning and arresting opposition leaders, enacting stringent media control laws and filing hundreds of cases against any civil society group that criticized her, New Delhi remained steadfast in its support. In turn, Ms. Hasina stood by India on every issue, from the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) boycott over terrorism from Pakistan to the Citizenship Amendment Act, which triggered protests in Bangladesh.
New government in Bangladesh | Lessons for India and South Asia
Bangladesh has become a mainstay of India’s regional connectivity plans in Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific, and is a significant buyer of Indian energy from the subcontinental grid. What is worrying is that many of the agreements signed, including the most recent power deal with the Adani Group, will now be reviewed.
Will New Delhi be able to build a similar relationship with the new government?
New Delhi has shown that it is continuing to engage with the interim government in Dhaka and any government that may be elected in the future. Indian High Commissioner to Dhaka Pranay Verma attended the swearing-in ceremony of the new interim government led by Muhammad Yunus.
However, the Modi government’s relationship with the new government in Bangladesh is complicated by a number of issues. First, Ms Hasina’s presence in India is viewed with suspicion in Dhaka. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s statement in Parliament that she has come to India “just for a short while” indicates that New Delhi would like to see her go elsewhere until the anti-Hasina sentiment in Bangladesh subsides. Things will get even more complicated if the new government there seeks her extradition.
story of sheikh hasina
Secondly, the BNP may win if it wins elections in Bangladesh, and India had a bitter experience during Ms Zia’s previous term in power (2001-2006). At that time, Bangladesh had become a haven for violent anti-India separatist groups, and China and Pakistan had also made inroads. It remains to be seen whether, two decades later, another BNP government will be any different. Thirdly, Mr Modi’s appeal for the safety of Hindus and other minorities, as well as the formation of a five-member committee by the Home Ministry “to maintain communication channels with their counterparts in Bangladesh to ensure the safety of Indian nationals and persons belonging to minority communities in Bangladesh”, is being seen as partisan in Dhaka. Hundreds of people have been killed in violence in the past few weeks; Mr Modi’s appeal and the formation of the committee will further complicate Delhi-Dhaka relations.
Will there be a change in Bangladesh’s relations with other countries?
The immediate impact of the changes in Dhaka will be felt in relations with the US, which has been consistently hostile to the Hasina government, and has even been accused of instigating her downfall. Last year, the US State Department passed a special visa policy to “promote democracy” in Bangladesh, aimed at banning officials who attempted to thwart elections. This was designed to target Ms Hasina and the Awami League, and thus relations with the new government are likely to improve. Bangladesh’s relations with Pakistan have also been strained during Ms Hasina’s tenure, and this may change. Ms Hasina had close ties with China, joining the Belt and Road Initiative and meeting President Xi Jinping. Beijing will likely seek equally strong ties with the new government in Dhaka.