Within two weeks, elections were held in two former Soviet Union states, Georgia and Moldova, in what was seen as a competition between Russia and the West. With Moldova scheduled to vote on 3 November, the results of the Georgian elections sparked protests, claims of Russian interference and allegations of voter fraud and were contested.
When citizens of the Caucasus country cast their votes on October 26, pollsters predicted the fall of the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party. Defying expectations, the country’s election authority declared victory for the pro-Moscow party, citing its 54% vote share.
Despite street protests and the US, EU and NATO coming together to condemn the result, the electoral body refused to budge. Nor was he surprised by statements from the country’s pro-Europe President Salome Zurabishvili, who declared the results illegitimate and made claims of a ‘Russian special operation’. The poll agency said a partial recount of 14% of votes at 12% polling stations showed no significant deviations. “There were minor changes in the final figures at approximately 9% of recounted polling stations,” it said.
Opposition parties have cited Edison Research and HarrisX, two US-based survey firms, whose projections had put Georgian Dream’s vote share below 45%. HarrisX called the final results ‘statistically improbable’, while Addison marked vote manipulation.
The arrest of two individuals by the Interior Ministry for ballot stuffing and 47 criminal counts of electoral violations further strengthened the opposition’s case.
From the outset, these may seem like sufficient grounds to suspect foul play by Georgian Dream. However, Western officials have refrained from declaring the election stolen or calling for a boycott of the results. Meanwhile, Russia has asked to respect the wishes of the Georgian people.
Whether Russia interfered in the elections will be revealed only with time. Yet, after gaining independence in 1991 and fighting the Five-Day War in 2008, which took away 20% of its territory, both Georgia’s history and geography have become intertwined with those of its larger neighbor. With Ukraine and its developments since 2014 proving to be a textbook, Georgian Dream probably realized that the country’s future is also linked to Russia and started aligning its policies so as not to upset the Eurasian giant.
Founded in 2012 by businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgian Dream won that year’s elections by forming a coalition with a liberal group of pro-Western liberal and anti-NATO nationalist parties. It has retained power since then and even did so in 2020 without the support of other parties.
Before the elections, opinion polls had shown that in the country of 3.7 billion people, citizens, especially urban youth, had ambitions to join the EU. But for those who live in rural areas and are troubled by the horrors of war, peace is the aspiration.
Capitalizing on these fears, Georgian Dream designed an election campaign that featured billboards comparing the horrors of the Ukraine war against the stability offered by the ruling government. Conspiracy theories about a ‘Global War Party’ also began to circulate.
Following the publication of the results, a report by Edison Research said that “deviations from expected results were most pronounced at specific polling locations in rural areas” while a report by Reuters said that Georgian Dream had won 90% of the vote in rural areas. Received.
Starting with its refusal to impose sanctions on Russia, Georgian Dream has carefully pulled the country away from the EU into Russia’s orbit. Two recent legislations – a foreign influence law modeled on a Russian bill and an anti-LGBTQI+ law – blocked Georgia’s path to the EU, which blocked her candidacy citing the party’s authoritarian tendencies .
The Georgian Dream, in its desperate attempt to stay away from war, is in conflict with sections of the country’s society that want a pro-Western future.
published – November 03, 2024 01:54 am IST