with Fall of Awami League government led by Sheikh HasinaIt is believed that the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is most likely to come to power in the next election. The biggest question is when will the next election be held in Bangladesh and will the BNP contest the election together with its old ally Jamaat-e-Islami?
In addition, there is a fear of the emergence of a “king’s party” if the elections are delayed too long. This is a sign of a new party that may have the support of the military.
Bangladesh has seen military rule for many years and a military-backed regime. Given current popular sentiment, it seems the military is not inclined to support an interim government for long.
Bangladesh Army Chief General Waqar-uz-Zaman is backing an interim government and has promised early elections and a return to civilian rule soon.
A top BNP leader and a Jamaat member told India Today that elections cannot be postponed for long, and even Muhammad Yunus’s interim government Was aware of this.
However, all agree that the institutions that had taken a particular shape during the 15 years of Sheikh Hasina’s rule need to be revamped first.
Nazrul Islam Khan, a member of the BNP’s National Standing Committee, says, “All political parties keep preparing for elections. But the situation in Bangladesh is not ripe enough to think about elections. Now the time has come to deal with the problems created by the previous government and resolve the crises. Restoring law and order is the priority and the focus is on reforms.”
“However, elections cannot be postponed indefinitely. The timing cannot be predicted right now. But I don’t think it will take much time to hold the next election,” Khan told IndiaToday.in from Dhaka.
Jamaat-e-Islami also believes that the time has come to restore institutions, but elections should be held within 1.5 years.
“I hope elections are held soon,” says Muhammad Naqib-ur-Rahman, a Jamaat-e-Islami member and a professor of finance at the University of North Carolina. “There has been extensive damage to the institutions that are considered the cornerstones of democracy, whether it is the judiciary, the election commission or the police. Restoration takes time, but it cannot be a very long process.”
Naqeebur Rahman is the son of former Jamaat-e-Islami president Motiur Rahman Nizami.
Why can’t Bangladesh elections be postponed for long?
Bangladesh Election Commission cancels Jamaat’s registrationFollowing a High Court ruling in 2018, the radical right party, L.L.
However, the Jamaat was included in the all-party talks held by General Waqar-uz-Zaman after Hasina fled Bangladesh amid protesters marching towards her residence on August 5. Jamaat members have been blamed for the violent protests but its leaders say there is no evidence linking it to the violence.
Jamaat’s Muhammad Naqib-ur-Rahman fears a “king’s party” could emerge if the military-backed interim government remains in power for too long. He hopes elections will be held within 1.5 years.
“If the interim government continues for a long time, because it is not an elected government, there may be attempts to start a new political party, generally called the King’s Party. Then democracy will end because the elections will not be free and fair,” Rehman told IndiaToday.in.
“I hope the elections will be held within a reasonable time, between 9 months to a year. I will be worried if it takes more than 1.5 years and I will be worried if it takes more than 2 years,” says Rehman.
BNP’s Najrul Islam Khan says members of the interim government were aware of this fact.
“They need to hand over power to the people by handing over control to an elected government,” says Khan, a Bangladeshi freedom fighter.
How will this benefit BNP in the next election?
The BNP and Jamaat coalition government came to power in 2001 and ruled for five years with BNP’s Khaleda Zia as prime minister. After this, Bangladesh had an interim government for 3 years, after which Sheikh Hasina won the election and became the prime minister in 2009.
Jamaat’s Rehman says Hasina has come to power with a landslide majority because of the support of the army. He said the army can tip the scales in favour of any party in Bangladesh. That is why they fear the “king’s party”.
After Hasina fled Bangladesh following anti-reservation protests that turned into a movement for her ouster, the Awami League has lost its edge. Hasina’s three consecutive terms and her dictatorial rule Public sentiments have flared up against the Awami League.
Rahman says, “If elections were held today, there is no doubt that BNP would come to power. Now the number of people who dislike the Awami League has increased.”
He said winning the election was not everything, and the police, judiciary and other institutions would not change and cooperate. “It is in the interest of the BNP’s survival after the election that the interim government continue for some time,” he said.
BNP’s Khan says Awami League will have no chance in next elections.4
“The Awami League misruled the country for a long time. You must have seen how people reacted during the protests. As a political party, they have every right to participate in elections, but I think they have no chance in the coming years,” he says.
Jamaat’s Rehman, however, does not rule out the Awami League, given its core voter base.
Bangladeshi-American political analyst Shafkat Rabbi has provided a rough idea of the voter base in the absence of opinion polls.
He says political allegiances in Bangladesh show that about 40% of Bangladeshis support the Awami League and 40% support the BNP. The remaining 20% are divided among Jamaat, Jatiya Party and other Islamic and communist parties.
Rabbi says the Awami League has a good network at the grassroots level but it will take time to regroup after the recent defeat.
Will BNP form a pre-poll alliance with Jamaat?
The BNP had boycotted the last two elections.According to the Dhaka Tribune, Bangladesh Muslim League-Nawaz (BML-N) leaders held a show of strength in Dhaka and thousands of people gathered there.
Jamaat’s Rehman says the BNP-Jamaat alliance is natural and it has like-minded components.
“You can see similarities between BNP and Jamaat supporters. The BNP-Jamaat alliance helps both parties,” he says.
“In a district like Jessore, which is an Awami League stronghold, the vote share difference between the Awami League and BNP is not very big. In such cases, Jamaat’s vote transfer helps. With the alliance, it becomes a binary choice between BNP-Jamaat and the Awami League,” explains Rahman.
However, he admitted that the alliance is no longer as strong as it was in 2001.
“Things have changed after August 5. The Awami League has become very weak and will not come to power. The BNP and Jamaat can fight separately and see who wins how many seats and form a coalition government after the election. There can also be an alliance before the election. All these things are still uncertain,” says Rahman.
Senior BNP leader Nazrul Islam Khan believes his party can win the next election alone.
He said “the BNP is strong enough to win enough seats to form a government on its own”, but also hinted at a larger coalition.
“Our Acting President [Tarique Rahman; Khaleda Zia’s son] He said, “We are committed that all parties fighting for the restoration of democracy will work together to rebuild the nation through the implementation of the 31-point State Reconstruction Programme when the elected government takes office in the future.”
While the alliance is far from certain, some things are clear. Elections could take more than a year, but any delay would raise the specter of a military-backed party emerging, making Bangladesh’s path to democracy even more difficult.