A view of the sand sculpture depicting Donald Trump at Puri beach in Odisha on November 6, 2024 after winning the US presidential election. , Photo courtesy: Reuters
FSeveral years later, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told a crowd in Houston, Texas that India was “well connected” with Republican candidate Donald Trump and followed suit.This time Trump government (This time, Trump government)”, Mr Trump has secured the required votes to become the 47th President of the US. Mr Modi’s statement reflects the cordiality that the two leaders shared during Mr Trump’s first term. But when we move beyond personal relations to bilateral relations, ‘Trump 1.0’ was a mixed bag for India. There is no doubt that New Delhi will welcome Trump 2.0, even if it is prepared for the impact of some of his methods, such as using social media to openly coerce someone to get his point across.
where the road will be smooth
There are many reasons for the Modi government to be happy with Mr Trump’s victory. The President-elect has made it clear that he intends to build on his past history with India, which would include building trade ties, opening up more technology to Indian companies, and making more US military hardware available for the Indian defense forces . He will pick up the broken threads of negotiations for a free trade agreement, which were intensely negotiated in 2019-2020 before he lost power, and which former President Joe Biden showed no interest in continuing. Instead of pressuring India to cut carbon emissions, Mr Trump could encourage India to buy US oil and LNG, along the lines of the MoU signed in 2019 for the Driftwood LNG plant in Louisiana, which would have contributed $2.5 billion. Petronet invested in the US from India but was closed after a year.
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Under Mr Trump, India-US relations are unlikely to face less trouble on issues such as democratic norms, minority rights, press freedom and human rights that the Modi government faced with the Biden administration and the US Commission on International Religious Freedom . , Nor will they need to worry about questions over the treatment of climate and human rights NGOs affected by the Foreign (Contributions) Regulation Act, 2010, although some questions may be asked by Republican congressmen about American Christian NGOs operating in India. Are worried. New Delhi would also hope that public comments from the US State Department and Justice Department on the Pannun-Nijjar cases would be more muted. While the trial involving Nikhil Gupta, the alleged middleman behind the failed assassination attempt on Khalistani activist Gurpatwant Pannun last year, will continue, Republican Hindu Coalition founder Shalabh ‘Shaili’ Kumar has said he hopes Mr Trump will “crack down” . On Khalistani groups. Moreover, Mr Trump’s frosty relations in the past with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau indicate that New Delhi will not have to worry about Washington’s reaction to the ongoing diplomatic war with Ottawa over the Nijjar killing.
potential trouble areas
So, where could the trouble come from? The first problem is Mr Trump’s relentless focus on cutting trade tariffs, which led his administration to impose a series of retaliatory tariffs, file WTO complaints and then withdraw India’s GSP status for exporters.
Second, there is his habit of disclosing and sometimes embellishing or even imagining the contents of private conversations with leaders. For example, he mocked Mr Modi on the issue of reducing duty on Harley Davidson motorcycles and maligned India for lifting the ban on hydroxychloroquine exports, which did not go down well in New Delhi.
This habit took a more serious form when other countries also joined it. In 2019, Mr Trump told Pakistan’s then prime minister, Imran Khan, that they could “solve the Kashmir issue”, and Mr Modi had asked him to mediate in the matter (India vehemently denied this claim). Did). In 2020, after China violated the Line of Actual Control and triggered a military standoff with India, Mr Trump posted that Mr Modi was “not in a good mood” over the developments; India denied that any conversation took place between the two leaders. However, diplomats say Mr Trump supported India in the conflict, ensuring the US shared intelligence, rented drones, and provided winter gear for the forces “in a manner different from previous US administrations”. Compensated.
Perhaps the toughest time was during America’s tensions with Iran: In June 2018, he sent the then-UN envoy, Nikki Haley, on a mission to New Delhi to threaten India with sanctions. Subsequently, India reduced its oil imports from both Iran and Venezuela to “zero”.
What is of some solace is that given Mr Trump’s interest in talks with the Russian President, New Delhi may now face little pressure to sever ties with Moscow. India will also seek Mr Trump’s intervention to end Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon and restart talks with Gulf countries, to help revive its plans for the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor. , which is now almost dying.
India’s neighbors may be more concerned about the impact of Mr Trump’s victory. During his previous tenure, he had canceled most of the American aid given to Pakistan. Now, the Shahbaz Sharif government will also have to worry about losing US support on loans from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. In Bangladesh, chief adviser Muhammad Yunus, a close friend of Democratic Party leaders, has already drawn ire from Mr Trump after he posted on social media last week about Dhaka’s failure to protect Hindu minorities. The Biden government had expanded its reach to South Asian countries like Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives. In that sense, many in the region may be more concerned not about US action but about the lack of attention from the new administration.
suhasini.h@thehindu.co.in
published – November 07, 2024 01:01 am IST