What would a Trump win mean for abortion in the United States?

Signatures in favor of Proposition 139, an abortion rights initiative, are displayed in the entrance hall of the Tucson headquarters of Arizona List, an organization designed to empower and elect progressive pro-choice Democratic women leaders, on October 16 in Tucson, Arizona There is a union. 2024. | Photo courtesy: AFP

Donald Trump’s second presidency could lead to increased efforts by conservative politicians to restrict abortion access across the United States.

Here’s a closer look at the legal tools available to a future administration intent on limiting abortion access and how abortion rights defenders are preparing to fight back.

federal action

For abortion rights advocates, the nightmare scenario is a Republican-controlled Congress enacting sweeping national restrictions or a complete ban.

Vice President Kamala Harris has supported a federal law protecting abortion, but it would require Democratic control of the House, Senate and presidency.

Read also, US Presidential Election 2024 race reaches final stage; Former President Trump, Vice President Harris made sharp attacks

If Mr. Trump wins but Republicans don’t control Congress, he could still “do a lot of damage to abortion access” through federal actions and judicial appointments, said Lewis Grossman, a law professor at American University. AFP,

The Republican former president’s Supreme Court pick was crucial in overturning decades of legal precedent protecting the national right to abortion.

While Mr. Trump has hinted at restraint several times during the 2024 campaign — even suggesting he could veto any anti-abortion legislation that comes to his desk — some fear that Project 2025 is the real war plan.

Published by the ultra-conservative Heritage Foundation, the document offers a roadmap for tougher executive branch restrictions, developed with input from former Trump officials. Trump has publicly distanced himself from the document.

New terms on abortion pills

Experts speculate that abortion pills may be Trump’s first target.

Mifepristone, which stops pregnancy progression, and misoprostol, which empties the uterus, were responsible for about two-thirds of abortions in the U.S. last year, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Since 2000, medical abortions approved by the US Food and Drug Administration required a clinic visit. However, during COVID-19, telehealth briefly opened access by mail, a policy that Joe Biden’s administration made permanent in 2021.

George Washington University law professor Sonia Suter said the Trump administration could reinstate individual requirements or roll back other easier rules — an easier step than revoking the approval, though that is also possible.

Angie Jean-Marie of Plan C, a nonprofit focused on abortion access, said that if access to mifepristone is restricted, providers may rely on misoprostol alone, a potential solution because it is already used for a variety of medical uses. Is approved for and is subject to fewer regulations.

If Ms. Harris wins, Jean-Marie says lawyers will pressure her to make the pills available without a prescription.

Reviving obscenity laws

Anti-abortion activists are eyeing the Comstock Act, a 19th-century law that prohibits mailing “obscene” materials, including “objects producing abortion.”

The US Justice Department under Biden currently interprets this law as inapplicable to approved abortion pills.

But the suitor told AFP A broader interpretation could apply that would include “anything used for abortion – including materials for surgical abortion – that could effectively lead to a national ban.”

This could disrupt supply chains to clinics and hospitals in states where abortion is currently legal – or where it could soon be allowed through a state-level referendum on November 5.

Conservative lawyer and scholar Josh Craddock told AFP : “There is nothing nefarious or ‘backdoor’ about implementing laws that Congress has enacted and repeatedly ratified.”

Judicial appointments and more

Suter said the Trump administration could also try to eliminate stringent patient privacy protections put in place by Mr. Biden for women who get abortions outside the state, paving the way for possible prosecution if they return home.

Although the Supreme Court’s conservative majority has already overturned Roe v. Wade, experts say the power to appoint federal judges remains paramount.

Grossman pointed out that courts could soon convene to decide the fate of state laws that make it harder for women in abortion-friendly states to access care.

Jean-Marie emphasized that pro-abortion groups are not sitting idle.

“If Trump wins, there’s a lot to prepare for in those weeks before the inauguration,” he said, noting strategies like pill stockpiling, foreign sourcing and community support networks.

Pro-abortion organizations are also launching a “You Have a Choice” campaign to ensure that women have access to vital resources, no matter who wins on November 5.