The Sinaloa drug cartel was arrested by US agents in Texas during a dramatic operation and without the involvement of Mexican authorities. Cartel co-founder Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada pleaded not guilty to drug charges in a US court on Friday.
He was taken into custody a day earlier Joaquin Guzman Lopez, He is the son of another co-founder of the cartel, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, who is already in a U.S. prison.
What are the implications of the arrest of two of Mexico’s most wanted drug traffickers?
Effect on the Sinaloa Cartel
US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) chief Anne Milgram said Zambada’s arrest “strike at the heart of the gang that is responsible for most of the drugs, including fentanyl and methamphetamine, that kill Americans from coast to coast.”
But experts say the arrest will not be a major blow to the powerful criminal organisation.
According to analysts at the Insight Crime think tank, it was “a significant but mostly symbolic victory” for US authorities.
He wrote that Zambada, a veteran drug lord who had evaded justice for decades, was believed to have already taken a step back from the cartel’s day-to-day operations.
Falko Ernst, an analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank, describes the cartel as “a structure with a thousand heads that will not fundamentally change its character if one or two kingpins fall.”
Effect on drug trafficking
“The flow of fentanyl and other drugs into the United States is unlikely to be substantially reduced,” Vanda Felbab-Brown, an expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington, wrote in a commentary.
“Internal strife aside, the Sinaloa cartel has additional systems for smuggling, and two of the Chapitos (El Chapo’s sons) are still at large, including Jesus, the boss of Sinaloa’s international operations,” he said.
Felbab-Brown predicted that even if the Sinaloa Cartel collapsed, the rival Jalisco New Generation Cartel would take over its fentanyl distribution in the United States.
InSight Crime analysts agreed that “these arrests are unlikely to have any impact on the flow of synthetic drugs, particularly fentanyl, into the United States.”
He said relatively low barriers to entry into the synthetic drugs supply chain have reduced the importance of single players such as the Sinaloa cartel.
Will cartel violence escalate?
The Sinaloa Cartel engages in highly violent turf wars with rival groups, which experts say may try to take advantage of the opportunity to expand their operations.
Even within the organisation, there is infighting between rival factions.
According to Felbab-Brown, “These arrests will likely increase the already intense criminal violence in Mexico and will likely make the criminal market for the United States even more dangerous.”
He warned that the fighting could strengthen the “more dangerous” Jalisco New Generation Cartel.
According to Crisis Group’s Ernst, there are about 200 armed criminal groups in Mexico, complicating efforts to control drug trafficking.
They also fear an intensification of fighting between the Jalisco New Generation Cartel as well as Sinaloa factions.
Diplomatic consequences
Mexican authorities said they were not involved in Thursday’s operation and were not informed about it in advance.
Mexico has complained in the past about being kept in the dark about DEA activities – particularly after the United States arrested former Mexican Defense Minister Salvador Cienfuegos on drug trafficking charges in 2020.
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador accused the DEA of fabricating drug trafficking charges against Cienfuegos and in response restricted the activities of foreign agents on Mexican soil.
“The relationship has already been damaged a lot. I don’t think the Sinaloa cartel arrests can do any more damage to it,” Mike Vigil, the DEA’s retired head of international operations, told AFP.
He believes Washington did not inform Mexico until Zambada and Guzmán López were in US custody, to avoid jeopardising the operation.
“If Mexico is informed, that information could be leaked in a minute,” Vigil said.