On Tuesday evening, Iran launched about 180 ballistic missiles targeting at least four key locations in Israel, raising concerns of a major war in West Asia. Here are the details of what this could mean for the region and the conflict.
ugly
The ugly side of the situation is clear. Fears of full-scale war between the two countries and their allies are increasing. The intensity of this missile barrage was much higher than a similar attack earlier this year, which was aimed at destroying Israel’s Arrow defense system. Tuesday’s Iranian missile attack included the Imad and Ghadar types, and was the first use of the hypersonic medium-range “Fattah-2” ballistic missile, a significant show of force.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said on Tuesday, “Iran made a big mistake tonight, and it will pay a price for it.” “Whoever attacks us, we attack them,” he said.
Earlier, Israel had carried out at least five strikes targeting pro-Iranian early warning and defense systems in Syria, which would have detected Israeli air activity toward Iran.
This could lead Israel to use its air forces against Iran through Syrian and Iraqi airspace. In a worst-case scenario, Israel could retaliate against targets inside Iran, potentially escalating into full-scale war. Encouraged by the apparent success of its Fatah missiles, Iran may feel emboldened to pursue further attacks. If such an increase occurs, it could cause unimaginable loss of human life and further destabilize an already fragile global economy.
bad
Despite Iran’s missile attacks, Israel has continued its raids in Gaza and Lebanon. At least 32 people were killed in overnight Israeli air strikes in southern Gaza, according to Palestinian medical officials. Iran’s actions could undermine any ceasefire proposals in Gaza and Lebanon. Israel has launched a limited ground offensive into Lebanon, issuing evacuation orders to move southern villages across the Awali River. These missile strikes would reduce domestic pressure on Netanyahu to stop attacks in Gaza and Lebanon, which would worsen the existing humanitarian crisis in these areas.
Good
Amidst the grim scenario of two regional powers on the brink of full-scale war, there are still rays of hope. One such view was that of former US President Donald Trump. Despite his controversial personality, Trump’s candor often reveals insight into the highest levels of government decision making.
Asked about the current Iran-Israel tensions, Trump referred to the first Iranian missile attack on a US base in Iraq during his presidency, which injured several US soldiers. He commented, “I thought it was a great thing,” referring to the fact that there were no deaths, and suggested that Iran “has to do that.” His comments pointed to the notion that more significant American losses at the time could have led to an even harsher military response, possibly starting a cycle of inevitable attacks.
Similarly, in the current conflict, the absence of reported deaths provides both Israel and Iran an opportunity to save face. While Iran can claim to have penetrated Israel’s air defenses, Israel can boast successful interception of most ballistic missiles, minimizing damage and preventing loss of life. All of Iran’s targets were military in nature, perhaps indicating a desire to maintain the status quo despite external aggression.
Target sites included Nevatim airbase near Beersheba and Tel Nof airbase, 20 kilometers south of Tel Aviv, both home to Israeli F-35 fighter jets. However, with advance warning, it is likely that these jets were airborne, preventing major damage.
Provided sufficient political wisdom on both sides, this could be the kind of Iranian response that the people of Iran and the State of Israel can live with.