The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party is currently leading in the polls in both Saxony and Thuringia. | Photo credit: Getty Images
Voters in two eastern German states will go to the polls on Sunday (September 1, 2024). The elections are expected to deal a blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government and give a big boost to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Voting in Thuringia and Saxony takes place a week later. Three people killed in a suspected Islamist attackWhich has fueled a heated debate on immigration in Germany.
According to opinion polls, the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) is leading in Thuringia and second in Saxony, while the new, far-left political party Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) is also predicted to perform strongly.
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Both parties have received good support in the eastern states for criticising the Berlin government and military aid to Ukraine.
An AfD election victory would be a milestone in Germany’s post-war history and a rebuke to Mr Scholz ahead of national elections in 2025.
In both states, Mr Scholz’s Social Democrat party is getting around six percent of the vote, while his coalition partners the Greens and the liberal FDP are further behind.
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But even if the AfD comes out on top in the polls, it is unlikely to take power because other parties have refused to work with the far-right to form a government.
Voting in both regional elections will begin at 8:00 am local time (06:00 GMT), with polling stations closing at 6:00 pm.
Rise of the far-right
Counting of votes will begin immediately after voting ends, and the first exit polls are expected soon after.
Formed in 2013 as an anti-euro group that later transformed into an anti-immigration party, the AfD has surged in the polls by taking advantage of a controversial tripartite coalition in Berlin.
The party won a record 15.9% of the vote overall in the European Parliament elections in June and performed particularly well in eastern Germany, where it emerged as the biggest force.
Saxony is the most populous of the eastern German states and has been a conservative stronghold since reunification.
Thuringia, meanwhile, is more rural and is currently the only state led by the far-left Die Linke, the successor to East Germany’s ruling Communist Party.
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Germany’s third former state, Brandenburg, also goes to the polls at the end of September, where opinion polls show the AfD leading with around 24% of the vote.
The picture is slightly different in each state, but “in any case, it is clear that the AfD will unite a very strong number of votes behind itself”, explained Marianne Knauer, professor of politics at the Dresden University of Technology (TU Dresden). AFP,
new challenger
According to Ms Kuer, the AfD has more support in the east, where more voters “agree with its nationalist and authoritarian stance” and many are dissatisfied with mainstream parties.
This same stream has backed BSW, founded in January by flamboyant politician Sarah Wagenknecht after she left Die Linke.
Like the AfD, Ms. Wagenknecht and her party have taken a softer line toward Russia and called for a tough crackdown on immigration.
The BSW had immediate success in June’s European elections, winning around six percent of the German vote, and coming third in Saxony and Thuringia.
The refusal of other parties to work with the AfD has left BSW in the role of potential kingmaker in Thuringia and Saxony, while there are serious policy differences with potential partners – especially on Ukraine.
However, immigration anger was overshadowed by a deadly stabbing in the western city of Solingen ahead of voting day in Saxony and Thuringia.
The alleged attacker, a 26-year-old Syrian man suspected of having links to the Islamic State group, was to be deported but attempts by authorities to send him back failed.
The government has announced knife controls and tighter rules for immigrants living illegally in Germany to address concerns raised by the incident.
The conservative CDU, which is expected to win both elections, has said the initial measures are not enough and has called for a ban on arrivals from Syria and Afghanistan.